Victoria election 2026: could Labor’s loyal heartland flip to One Nation?

At the 2022 Victorian state election, sitting Labor MP Natalie Suleyman saw her primary vote fall by 18.4%. Her seat of St Albans was previously thought to be unassailable Labor heartland, its mix of multicultural communities and working class voters insulating it against wider trends across the state. But with Labor facing growing dissatisfaction after 12 years in government, and One Nation gaining support, could the party’s heartland be flipped orange?

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